Value engine methodology
Every card in HoloHoard can carry an Est. Value: a daily estimate of what it is worth, built from real market activity. Here is how we calculate it, and what it does and does not mean.
Est. Value is our best single estimate of a card's current market worth, in USD, refreshed every day as new market data becomes available. It is computed per variant, because the same card can be worth very different amounts depending on its finish, edition, or print. It is an estimate drawn from the wider market, not a price we set or a price from any one seller.
We look at real market activity for each card: recent prices that cards have actually sold for, together with what comparable copies are currently listed at across major marketplaces. We use several data points per card rather than any single sale or listing, so one unusual price does not swing the estimate.
Each day we gather the latest market data for every card we track, filter out outliers and unreliable data points, and blend what remains into one estimate per variant. Because it is recomputed daily, the value moves as the market moves.
Most cards have a value, but not all of them yet. A card needs enough reliable market data before we will publish an estimate for it, and our coverage grows every day as new data comes in. Where we do not yet have a confident value, we show that plainly rather than guessing.
Market pages also show aggregate views. Games with a rich system of parallels, inserts and serialised prints get a full ladder: a set's variant tiers laid out rarest first, and a tier compared across sets. Simpler games show a more focused view of set and card values instead. Ladders are built from the same per-card Est. Values, with a few rules worth knowing:
It is a reference estimate to help you make decisions, not a formal appraisal, a guarantee of value, or an offer to buy or sell at that price. Real sale prices vary with condition, timing, and where you sell. Always use your own judgement for an actual transaction.
The Est. Value reflects the market, not us. If we ever partner with a franchise, manufacturer, store, or marketplace, in any form, including as an affiliate, it will never change the Est. Value we show. We never set our own prices, and we never skew a value up or down for a personal preference or a business relationship.
We keep the exact weightings and thresholds private on purpose. Publishing them would make the estimate easy to manipulate, which would make it less trustworthy for everyone. What we can tell you is the honest shape of the method: real, recent, multi-source market data, cleaned of outliers, blended per variant, updated daily.
An estimate built from public market activity has real limits, and we would rather name them than pretend they do not exist:
